NL East Division Preview

Atlanta Braves

1. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF

2. Ozzie Albies, 2B

3. Austin Riley, 3B

4. Matt Olson, 1B

5. Marcell Ozuna, DH

6. Michael Harris II, CF

7. Sean Murphy, C

8. Orlando Arcia, SS

9. Jarred Kelenic, LF

SP: RHP Spencer Strider

Despite the team’s disappointing finish to last year’s season, the Braves are still the favorites going into 2024. Atlanta seemingly improved on their roster that won 104 games last year, a terrifying thought that leaves the rest of the league in fear. Following the frustrating 3-1 NLDS loss to the division rival Phillies, GM and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos decided to improve the current roster even more. He acquired Reynaldo Lopez, a terrific long reliever last year, with the intention of using him as the club’s fifth starter. While it’s still to be determined how the transition will fare, especially after his rocky results opening games earlier in his career, he nonetheless represents a valuable piece. Atlanta also made two intriguing under the radar moves, bringing in reliever Aaron Bummer for a slew of failed prospects, and then bringing in a failed prospect of their own in Jarred Kelenic. They didn’t give up a whole lot for the latter, and while the outfielder didn’t live up to his lofty expectations in Seattle, he showed flashes at times. It even appeared he was turning a corner last year, finishing his age-23 season with a .746 OPS. In my opinion, the Mariners gave up on him too quickly, and a few years down the road, we could see this as an absolute heist for Atlanta. The biggest trade over the offseason, however, was for oft-injured yet immensely talented ace Chris Sale, who was acquired from Boston in exchange for promising infielder Vaughn Grissom. If Sale can stay healthy, the Braves added an elite (albeit old) arm to the staff for a guy who would have received little playing time in their organization. Sale and Lopez join a trio of fantastic starters atop the rotation in Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Charlie Morton. Strider, the team’s ace, is coming off a 281 strikeout campaign, comfortable leading the league. Interestingly, while his ERA was an average 3.86, his FIP led the league with a 2.85 mark, potentially indicating Strider has even bigger things in store for this year. His electric stuff makes him one of the most fun pitchers to watch in the league, and Braves fans are hoping for an even better 2024. While Fried’s 2023 was cut short due to injury, he was fantastic when on the field. Over the last two years combined, Fried has thrown 263 innings with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a solid 250 strikeouts. He doesn’t overwhelm opposing hitters with velocity and movement like his aforementioned younger counterpart, but his command is fantastic, leading to one of the better two-year stretches of any pitcher in the league today. Morton, who’s a full 15 years older than Strider and 10 than Fried, still has it going into his 40s. After the addition of Sale, Morton comfortably represents one of the strongest #4 starters in the league. The lineup is also incredibly impressive, centered around reigning MVP Ronald Acuña Jr.. Acuña led the league in hits, runs, steals, OBP, OPS, OPS+, and total bases, on top of solid defense in center field. He’s joined by a myriad of sluggers, including four who topped 30 home runs last year (Matt Olson tallied 54, Marcell Ozuna had 40, Austin Riley hit 37, and Ozzie Albies clubbed 33). This isn’t even mentioning all-stars Sean Murphy and Orlando Arcia, and 2022 rookie of the year Michael Harris. This team is an absolute juggernaut, and barring an unforeseen collapse, this team will win the division.

Philadelphia Phillies

1. Kyle Schwarber, DH

2. Trea Turner, SS

3. Bryce Harper, 1B

4. Alec Bohm, 3B

5. Bryson Stott, 2B

6. J.T. Realmuto, C

7. Nick Castellanos, RF

8. Brandon Marsh, LF

9. Johan Rojas, CF

SP: RHP Zack Wheeler

While the Phillies don’t always excel in the regular season, they always show up when it matters most. This was especially evident last year, where the 90-win Phillies defeated the 104-win Braves in four games in the NLDS. After a successful yet not inspiring regular season that saw the team grab the top wild card spot, Philadelphia stormed back to win the series against the Braves in decisive fashion, before falling victim to the Arizona Diamondbacks’ cinderella run. After coming up just short the past two years, making the world series in 2022 before being bested by the Astros, Philadelphia is hungry to return. The roster remains largely the same, with a couple minor bullpen moves being the most notable transactions over the offseason. In fact, both the lineup and the rotation, barring injuries, will be identical to their 2023 roster. At the heart of the lineup is Bryce Harper, entering his sixth year in Philadelphia after signing a 13 year, $330 million contract prior to the 2019 season. Somehow, that contract’s looking like a steal. He won MVP in 2021 and has led the team to multiple deep postseason runs, and while injuries are a concern, the team is hoping the move to first base will amend that. With a full offseason to take reps at first, Harper should be even stronger defensively. Interestingly, his approach seemingly changed at the plate last season. While his 21 homers were the least he’s had over a season with 120 games throughout his career, his batting average and OPS were both top 5 among seasons during his tenure as a big leaguer. Phillies fans will be watching to see if last year’s trend was simply an anomaly, or if that’s his expected output moving forward. Another key figure in the lineup is Trea Turner, who rebounded from a brutal start to put together a solid year in 2023. In the first half of the year, Turner slashed .247/.299/.389 for a measly 88 OPS+, far from expected given his new massive contract. However, Turner was a completely different man the second half of the season, hitting .292/.348/.554 for a much better 141 OPS+. If the star shortstop can continue his second half form into 2024, Philadelphia will have one of the most lethal 2-3 punches in the league. Kyle Schwarber continues to be the epitome of a three true outcomes hitter, leading the league in strikeouts two years in a row, while also hitting over 90 home runs in that same time span. While the strikeouts are certainly frustrating, modern analytics love the guy, and he’ll continue to be a mainstay atop the lineup. The lineup is deep as a whole, with all of the expected hitters batting above 100+ OPS last year. The rotation is solid as well, with a fantastic duo in Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola leading the charge. Both pitchers tossed over 190 innings last year, showing tremendous durability, while punching out hitters with over 200 strikeouts apiece. The Phillies recognized Nola’s value, inking him to a 7 year, $172 million extension over the offseason to avoid free agency. With Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker representing solid 3 and 4 starters, and Christopher Sanchez showing potential, Philadelphia has one of the better rotations in the league. As a whole, this team isn’t expected to win the division due to the absolute juggernaut in Atlanta. However, this team should make the playoffs with ease, and when this team gets hot in October, they’re close to unstoppable. As long as this team gets hot at the right time for the third team in a row, Phillies fans should be excited for this year.

New York Mets

1. Brandon Nimmo, CF

2. Francisco Lindor, SS

3. Pete Alonso, 1B

4. Jeff McNeil, 2B

5. Starling Marte, RF

6. DJ Stewart, DH

7. Francisco Alvarez, C

8. Brett Baty, 3B

9. Harrison Bader, LF

SP: LHP Jose Quintana

The Mets had so much promise going into 2023. Fresh off spending over $800 million in free agency on big names like Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga, and giving big extensions to Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz, the team looked like potential world series contenders. Yet, going into 2024, a very different narrative surrounds the team, in large part due to the incredibly disappointing 75-87 campaign last year. To put it frankly, the entire team fell apart. Verlander and Max Scherzer, who were expected to lead the rotation, were both dealt to contenders midseason. Edwin Diaz suffered a brutal injury in the World Baseball Classic in March and was unable to play all year, a vicious blow to the team’s bullpen. Veterans Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte had disappointing years, along with young top prospect Brett Baty. The team outlook is still looking bleak for this upcoming season, but it’s important to remember that the core is still largely intact from the team that won 101 games just two years ago. The offense is led by a strong trio of bats atop the lineup. The leadoff hitter, Brandon Nimmo, has quietly been one of the most consistent hitters of the last few years. He’s had an OPS+ above 110 and an OBP above .360 every year since 2017, and he’s stayed healthy over the past two years, something he’s struggled with in the past. Despite this continued success, he has yet to receive an MVP vote or make an all-star game. Hopefully that recognition will come soon, but in the meantime, he’ll continue to be a force atop the Mets lineup. While time will tell if the contract the Mets gave Francisco Lindor will still be worth it in 2031, thus far, the Puerto Rican shortstop has given the Mets their money’s worth. In a dismal year overall for the team, Lindor was one of the lone bright spots, playing 160 games and posting six wins above replacement. If the team is going to bounce back in 2024, he will be integral to that success. Pete Alonso, similar to Nimmo, has been impressively consistent for the Mets over the past five years. Ever since he broke onto the scene leading the league in homers as a rookie, he’s maintained a steady presence in the middle of the lineup. Despite a career low in batting average in 2023, he still clubbed 46 home runs while playing all but eight games for the team. The rest of the lineup has some questions, but they’re hoping their younger stars (Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty) can break out this year. Alvarez flashed potential at times, and while Baty’s rookie year was rough, he has obvious untapped potential. If those two can emerge this year, that will help immensely in the club’s playoff aspirations. The rotation leaves a lot to be desired, especially with star pitcher Kodai Senga out to begin the year with a shoulder injury. The team will have to rely on free agent signings Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to step up big-time, which I’m not sure is a fair ask. The team overall has clear potential, but based on the brutal competition in-division, as well as the disaster of last year still lingering, I wouldn’t bank on this team making the playoffs.

Miami Marlins

1. Luis Arraez, 2B

2. Josh Bell, 1B

3. Jake Burger, 3B

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., CF

5. Tim Anderson, SS

6. Bryan De La Cruz, LF

7. Jesús Sánchez, RF

8. Avisaíl García, DH

9. Nick Fortes, C

SP: LHP Jesús Luzardo

Fresh off the heels of a surprising postseason berth last year, the Marlins are looking to build off of last year’s positive momentum. The season came completely out of nowhere, with the 69-win Marlins from the year prior showing little signs of a postseason berth. The team was headlined by second baseman Luis Arraez, who was flirting with the .400 mark a good way into the year. While he ended up falling short, Arraez nonetheless led the league with a .354 mark, by far the best of his career. He looks to lead a Marlins offense that was severely lacking last year. Despite making the postseason, Miami finished dead last in runs in the NL. Arraez clearly was not the problem there, so the fish will have to look elsewhere for some offensive help. That could come in the form of electric young outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.. Chisholm peaked in 2022, earning his first all-star nod while posting an .860 OPS in just 60 games. If he can replicate his form from two years ago, the Marlins could have a second star offensively. Josh Bell and Jake Burger also both had a career renaissance last year, both with OPS totals above .800, and they look to build off that form. While Tim Anderson was dreadful last year, to the tune of a -2.0 WAR, he was still an all-star just two years ago. The Marlins are hoping he can return to his 2022 ways. The rotation, clearly, was the strength of the team last year. However, that rotation will be a lot weaker without their ace, Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 Cy Young winner got Tommy John surgery last October, and will be gone for the entirety of the 2024 season. One of Alcantara’s best traits was his durability, specifically his ability to consistently eat innings for the Marlins. Without his presence, the bullpen will be called on to carry a much larger load. The news only got worse when the Marlins found out Eury Perez would be getting Tommy John as well. The towering 6’8” righty showed tremendous promise throughout his rookie season, posting a 3.15 ERA in 19 starts. However, his sophomore year will have to be pushed back to 2025. The team still has tremendous talent in the rotation, with lefty Jesus Luzardo leading the charge. Young pitcher Max Meyer also has elite potential, and the Marlins are hoping for big things from the 25-year-old. However, the staff is looking a lot thinner than it did last October. If the Marlins want to compete again this year, they’ll need the lineup to step up to account for the injuries to their staff. I rate this team similarly to the Mets, but the already crippling injuries scare me. This team has the potential to return to the playoffs if everything goes right, but I could also see this season crashing and burning in Miami.

Washington Nationals

1. C.J. Abrams, SS

2. Lane Thomas, RF

3. Eddie Rosario, LF

4. Joey Meneses, DH

5. Joey Gallo, 1B

6. Keibert Ruiz, C

7. Nick Senzel, 3B

8. Luis García, 2B

9. Victor Robles, CF

SP: RHP Josiah Gray

The Nationals took a big step forward last year, going from a near-league worst 55 wins in 2022 to a slightly more respectable 71 wins in 2023. While their win total still wasn’t spectacular, they saw the emergence of numerous young stars, giving the team in the nation’s capital hope moving forward. CJ Abrams, the main piece in the Juan Soto trade to San Diego, truly emerged for the first time in his young career, accumulating 3.4 wins above replacement. He was roughly league average at the plate, but excelled in the field, and was a force on the basebaths, stealing 47 bags. If he can take another step forward at the plate, he could easily reach his first all star game of his young career. Outfielder Lane Thomas also took a step forward from his 2022 campaign, slashing .268/.315/.468 en route to a 115 OPS+. The Nationals still have three years of control of his rights, so they’re hoping he can continue his form from last year to be a reliable middle of the lineup bat. Washington is still waiting for catcher Keibert Ruiz to break out, but he displayed impressive consistency last year, playing 136 games behind the plate. The team also brought in numerous free agents who have displayed potential in the past, and for a team like Washington, the gamble is well worth it. Eddie Rosario was a good signing from a division rival in Atlanta, and he could provide stability in the middle of a young team. Joey Gallo had a similarly good 2023, and the Nationals hope he can provide some power in the lineup. Nick Senzel, a former top prospect in Cincinnati, has shown flashes of potential in the past, and Washington is hoping to tap into that. Jesse Winker had a rough 2023 in Milwaukee, but he can easily return to his 2021 glory. If some of these lottery tickets win big, Washington could be in for a sneaky good year. The rotation has some intriguing names as well. Josiah Gray, the presumed opening day starter, had a solid 2023 with a 3.91 ERA. He’s still only 26 with plenty of room to grow. Similarly, MacKenzie Gore had a decent season last year, and the top prospect can always improve. The Nationals are far from a sure thing this year, but if the cards fall right, they could hover around the .500 mark.