AL Central Divsion Preview

Over the past few years, the AL Central has consistently been among the worst in baseball. The division hasn’t had a wild card team since 2017, and all teams save for Cleveland have had a top 5 pick in the MLB draft since 2020. Yet, due to the rampant tanking seen throughout the majority of the division, many teams have a bright future ahead of them, some of which could break out as early as this year. Minnesota returns as the defending champion and favorite for the division, but Detroit and Cleveland represent potential threats, with Kansas City as a dark horse to make a run for the crown following a brutal 2023. Only the White Sox appear to be guaranteed cellar dwellers, but with a busy offseason, there’s still hope for new talent to step up in Chicago. I’ve outlined my predictions for the division below, alongside projected opening day lineups.

The frontrunner: Minnesota Twins

1. Carlos Santana, 1B

2. Byron Buxton, CF

3. Carlos Correa, SS

4. Royce Lewis, 3B

5. Kyle Farmer, 2B

6. Ryan Jeffers, C

7. Max Kepler, RF

8. Manuel Margot, LF

9. Alex Kirilloff, DH

SP: RHP Pablo López

Coming off a 87-75 season and the club’s first playoff series win since 2002, the Twins are looking to build off of last year’s positive momentum. The lineup as a whole is strong, highlighted by the 2-4 spots in the batting order of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis. The trio were key contributors in the wild card sweep of Toronto last October, with Lewis in particular truly breaking out for the first time. The former first overall pick posted a .921 OPS in 2023, and is looking to replicate that performance that was initially expected of him when drafted in 2016. While he proved that he could live up to that billing on the field, injuries are the primary concern, and that goes for the other two stars in the Twin Cities as well. Buxton has been one of the most electric players in the league when healthy, yet he hasn’t played over 100 games since 2017. Although he had a down year in 2023, he has the obvious potential to bounce back, as long as he can stay on the field. Carlos Correa, signed from Houston in free agency prior to the 2022 season, has had a turbulent two years in Minnesota thus far, although he did step up in the aforementioned wild card series. If Minnesota wants to go deep in October this year, they will need all three stars to stay healthy and replicate their previous career successes. However, they are not alone in leading the charge for the reigning AL Central champs. The rotation appears to be one of the league’s best, highlighted by Pablo Lopez, acquired last year in the Luis Arraez deal with Miami. Coming off of a seventh place Cy Young finish in the AL, Lopez is expected to be the opening day starter, and the leader of a consistent and overall solid staff. Joe Ryan is looking to rebound after an unexpectedly rough 2023, but if he can regain his 2022 form, where he posted a 3.55 ERA in his rookie year, he will be an excellent #2 starter for Minnesota. Bailey Ober, returning from a year where he started 26 games with a 3.43 ERA, looks to continue that excellent form. Finally, Anthony DeSclafani, acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade with the Mariners last season, is expected to be an anchor near the back of the rotation, appearing to be a rock-solid fourth starter. Overall, the Twins are coming into 2024 as the favorites to win the central, and barring an unforeseen collapse from both the rotation and lineup, or an emergence from Detroit or Cleveland, they should cruise to a playoff berth.

The consistent contender: Cleveland Guardians

1. Steven Kwan, LF

2. José Ramírez, 3B

3. Josh Naylor, 1B

4. Ramón Laureano, RF

5. Andrés Giménez, 2B

6. Tyler Freeman, CF

7. David Fry, DH

8. Bo Naylor, C

9. Brayan Rocchio SS

SP: RHP Shane Bieber

The Guardians are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2023 campaign. The year prior, the club saw the emergence of numerous young stars, such as outfielder Steven Kwan and second baseman Andres Gimenez. However, last year, both players took a significant step back, setting the tone for a disappointing year. If Cleveland wants to return to their 2022 form, highlighted by 92 wins and a playoff berth, Kwan and Gimenez are central to those aspirations. Another key contributor is Jose Ramirez, a mainstay in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup since their world series run in 2016. Ramirez, still only 31, has cemented himself as one of the best third basemen of the last decade, and a potential hall of fame candidate. These expectations place a burden on Jose to produce, necessitating him to be an integral piece of the Guardians’ offense. The lineup as a whole is consistent throughout, with first baseman Josh Naylor returning from a career year, Ramon Laureano looking to return to his Oakland form, and Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rochhio representing Cleveland’s up and coming talent. However, in my opinion, the Guardians’ strength lies in their pitching staff. Ace Shane Bieber has proved to be among the best in the league, posting an ERA under 4 each year since 2019. While his 2023 season was underwhelming for his lofty standards, he was still among the better pitchers in the AL. Similarly to Minnesota, Cleveland’s rotation also boasts tremendous depth. Their trio of 2-4 starters, Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, and Triston McKenzie, represent the future of the Guardians’ staff. Bibee especially appears to have a bright career ahead of him, hihglighted by a 2.98 ERA in his rookie age 24 season. McKenzie’s 2023 season was cut short due to injury, but he had a similarly fantastic year when he was 24 in 2022, notching a sub-1 WHIP and sub-3 ERA. Allen’s numbers aren’t quite as eye-popping, but a 3.81 ERA is nothing to scoff at. All of this is only from the rotation, and it’s arguable that the bullpen is even stronger, led by two of the league’s best relievers, Emmanuel Clase and Scott Barlow. Other than Barlow, who was acquired via free agency, Cleveland’s offseason was underwhelming, with few acquisitions made. The ceiling appears to be limited for the Guardians, but if Kwan and Gimenez bounce back, and the rotation stays healthy, it’s easy to imagine this team making a wild card run.

The wild card: Detroit Tigers

1. Parker Meadows, CF

2. Riley Greene, RF

3. Spencer Torkelson, 1B

4. Kerry Carpenter, DH

5. Mark Canha, LF

6. Colt Keith, 2B

7. Javier Báez, SS

8. Gio Urshela, 3B

9. Jake Rogers, C

SP: LHP Tarik Skubal

Detroit has been one of the most consistently terrible teams in the league since the Miguel Cabrera era, but following a 78-84 season, a big step up from prior years, there’s hope within the Tigers organization. This is due to the plethora of young talent the club boasts, and it appears they hit on a few of their high draft picks. Riley Greene, for example, was the team’s #5 overall pick in 2019. The young outfielder had a terrific age-22 season, hitting .288, and looks to be a constant atop the lineup for years to come. Spencer Torkelson, the top pick from 2020, clubbed 31 homers last year, looking to cement himself as one of the premier first basemen in the league. Meadows still has room for improvement, but his age-23 season was nonetheless a promising step in his young career. There’s a lack of established veteran talent in the lineup, aside from Mark Canha, although there are veterans who could bounce back to their all-star days. In particular, Javier Baez was fantastic in Chicago and New York, but his talent hasn’t translated to Detroit, and his six year, $140 million contract signed prior to the 2022 season looks like one of the most egregious overpays in the league. However, the emergence of one star pitcher is dominating the headlines surrounding the organization going into 2024: Tarik Skubal. The young left-hander has consistently improved over the course of his career. Following an unsuspecting 4.34 ERA in his first full season, every possible statistical measure has plummeted (in a good sense), with the ERA dropping to 2.80 in 2023, along with an 0.89 WHIP and a 2.00 FIP; which, if he was qualified, would have been by far the league’s best (Sonny Gray led qualified pitchers with a 2.83). Entering his age-27 season, Skubal offers plenty of reasons for Tigers fans to get excited, and seems primed for his first all-star nod. Aside from Skubal, the Tigers brought in former St. Louis star Jack Flaherty, who has had a tumultuous last couple years. Yet, despite the recent struggles, he has obvious potential, and he’s still only 28 years old. If he can regain the form he had in a Cardinals uniform, Detroit could have one of the scariest 1-2 punch in the league. Aside from them, there are numerous question marks throughout the rotation, but former #1 pick Casey Mize and former top prospect Matt Manning still have plenty of time to figure it out, especially after the breakout of Skubal. They’ve both flashed potential throughout their younger years, the only question is if they can put the pieces together. The lack of veteran presence in Detroit’s lineup and rotation could hold the club back, but if their young stars continue their upward trajectory, the team should only improve. A .500 season is certainly feasible, and a best-case scenario of a wild card berth isn’t completely unreasonable.

The upset potential: Kansas City Royals

1. Maikel Garcia, 3B

2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS

3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

4. Salvador Perez, C

5. MJ Melendez, LF

6. Hunter Renfroe, RF

7. Michael Massey, 2B

8. Nelson Velazquez, DH

9. Kyle Isbel, CF

SP: LHP Cole Ragans

The Royals somehow managed to underperform their already embarrassingly low expectations in 2023. Finishing with a dismal record of 56-106, the club finished with the second-worst record in the league, only ahead of the lowly A’s, already halfway to Las Vegas. The lineup was utterly devoid of talent, with only two hitters above 100 OPS+, and the rotation was somehow even worse, with their top three starters going into the year (Zack Greinke, Brady Singer, and Jordan Lyles) all having an ERA above 5. So, given the absolute trainwreck of a season this club is coming off of, what would give anyone reason for optimism? It boils down to the up-and-coming young talent and aggressive free agency signings. Regarding the former, Kansas City claims one of the premier young stars in the league, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.. The 23-year-old, the second overall pick from 2019, built off of a strong rookie year by finishing seventh in AL MVP voting. Mixing strong hitting, improved defense, and blazing speed (he led the league in triples and tallied 49 stolen bases), Witt appears to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. If he can improve or even match last year’s production, Kansas City has reason to be excited. While Witt was a much-heralded prospect ever since he was drafted, the Royals’ other young star came out of absolutely nowhere. Acquired in the Aroldis Chapman trade with Texas last summer, young starter Cole Ragans was a glimmer of light in an otherwise abysmal rotation last year. After a rough start in the bullpen with the Rangers, Kansas City converted him to a starter, and immediately reaped the benefits. Ragans went from a 74 ERA+ in Texas to a whopping 170 ERA+ after being traded, while racking up high strikeout numbers, posting 89 in just 71.2 innings. Coupled with a 2.62 ERA, it was immediately clear the Royals had acquired a diamond in the rough. The organization is hoping its other pitching prospects follow suit, including the aforementioned Brady Singer, whose performance plummeted after a strong 2022 season. With some of the best stuff in the bigs, the young right-hander has obvious potential, it’s just up to the Royals to tap into it. The club also invested heavily in free agency, signing starter Michael Wacha, infielder Adam Frazier, outfielder Hunter Renfroe, and in perhaps the most confusing deal of the offseason, reliever Seth Lugo to start games. While it’s still yet to be seen whether the veterans will help the team to improve on last year’s disappointment, the potential is there for players old and young to break out in Kansas City in 2024. 

The cellar dweller: Chicago White Sox

1. Andrew Benintendi, LF

2. Yoan Moncada, 3B

3. Luis Robert Jr., CF

4. Eloy Jiménez, DH

5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B

6. Paul DeJong, SS

7. Dominic Fletcher, RF

8. Martin Maldonado, C

9. Nicky Lopez, 2B

SP: LHP Garrett Crochet

The White Sox may hold the dubious honor of the worst collapse over the past few years, going from 93-69 just three years ago to 61-101 in 2023. The biggest reason for this rapid decline was the dissembling of their once-formidable rotation, notable including Carlos Rodon, Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, and Lance Lynn, all of whom have since been lost via trade or free agency. Cease was just traded on March 14th for a rather lackluster package, only including one top 100 prospect, further plunging the White Sox into the depths of the draft lottery. The worst part of the southside collapse is that the farm system leaves much to be desired, implying that this could be a lengthy rebuilding process for the club. The team does have three mlb.com top 100 prospects, including eighth-ranked shortstop Colson Montgomery, a first rounder drafted in 2021, but the farm system falls off after that. Chicago still has some viable major league talent, as much of the hitting core from the division champions three years ago still remains. Luis Robert Jr. was one of the lone bright spots from last year, clubbing 38 home runs during the first injury-free season of his career thus far. He looks to build off that performance while anchoring the team’s lineup. Yoan Moncada, the former #1 overall prospect acquired in the blockbuster Chris Sale trade seven years ago, has repeatedly shown flashes of elite potential, but has never truly put it all together, aside from a magical 2019 season. The same goes for fellow former top prospect Eloy Jimenez, who had an elite 2022 but mediocre 2023. Outside of those three, the lineup looks a little bare, but the team is hoping new acquisitions Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong can offer a much-needed boost. The team also made a notable deal in the offseason aside from the Cease trade, giving RP Aaron Bummer to the Braves in exchange for a slew of failed prospects, including former star SP Michael Soroka, 2B Nicky Lopez, SP Jared Shuster, and two additional prospects. Soroka flashed signs of stardom in 2019, finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting his rookie year. However, following an achilles injury in 2020, he was never the same, missing both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and posting a 6.40 ERA last year. The White Sox are gambling on his upside in this trade, as he’s still somehow only 26, with hopes that he can realize his 2019 potential. The team is gambling on another young pitcher as well in left-hander Garrett Crochet. A former first-round draft pick, Crochet was called up within the year he was selected in the 2020 draft. He’s been a reliever throughout his career, but now that the White Sox rotation is looking even more bleak, the team decided to move him up to the starting role. We’ll see if it pays off for a White Sox team that needs all the help they can get going into 2024. Overall, the present and future are looking pretty dismal for this team, and there’s virtually zero chance this team makes the postseason. However, if some of their former top prospects finally realize their potential, and some of the prospects in the Cease trade work out, there might be a glimmer of hope moving forward.