Examining the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

On January 23, 2024, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) released the final vote totals for the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. After the smoke cleared, Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer received the highest honor a player can receive: a plaque in Cooperstown. Beltre, in his first year on the ballot, easily passed the 75% required threshold, accruing 366 of a possible 394 votes. Helton and Mauer were closer calls, being inducted by only 4.7% and 1.1%, respectively. Former closer Billy Wagner narrowly missed induction as well, coming just 1.2% of votes shy, or a meager five votes. Gary Sheffield, in his last year on the ballot, came up short, receiving only 63.9%. Looking back at writers’ ballots, there are some choices that I disagree with. While there were (thankfully) no blank ballots submitted this year, some players who came up short are certainly qualified candidates. Thus, I’ll be outlining who I would have voted for, and will be covering those who should be receiving a call from upstate New York next January.

Adrian Beltre

While there were numerous questions about the ballot heading into this winter, there was no doubt Beltre would find himself in Cooperstown on January 23rd. The star third baseman, who primarily starred for Texas with stops in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Boston, is widely viewed as one of the greatest to ever man the hot corner. Beltre collected four silver slugger awards, four all-star appearances, five gold gloves, two platinum gloves (awarded to the greatest defensive player in all of baseball, regardless of position), and two top 3 MVP finishes. In addition to his play, Beltre grew his fanbase through his numerous on-field antics. Beltre is a true icon of this generation, and was always a lock for Cooperstown. 

Todd Helton

Helton finally broke through in his sixth year on the ballot, a drastic increase from his 16.5% total in 2018. Helton is often criticized for playing an “easy” defensive position in a hitter-friendly park, but his numbers still speak for themselves. During a five-year stretch from 2000 to 2004, Helton posted a .349 average, 186 home runs, and a whopping 1.093 OPS, a total only matched by Barry Bonds during that time span, statistically the greatest hitter of all time. His best season came in 2000, when he led the league in hits, doubles, RBIs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and wins above replacement. Despite this, he somehow finished fifth in MVP voting, trailing behind Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, and Jim Edmonds, all of whom had statistically worse seasons. A career Rockie, Helton is arguably the greatest in the franchise’s history, and is well deserving of his induction into the hall.

Joe Mauer

I was anticipating Mauer would need to wait multiple years until his induction. However, in maybe the greatest (pleasant) surprise of the ballot this year, Mauer got in on his first try. Perhaps one of the best pure athletes of his generation, Mauer is the only athlete to ever be selected as the USA Today High School Player of the Year in two separate sports, baseball and football (he was recruited to play quarterback for Florida State, but declined to pursue baseball instead). Drafted first overall in 2001, Mauer was a hometown hero for the Twins, with his high school only nine miles away from Target Field. Despite the lofty expectations placed upon him, Mauer thrived, culminating in his selection just a week ago. Throughout the first part of his career, he was consistently a top hitter while maintaining a steady presence behind the plate. The apex of his career came in 2009, when he won MVP while batting .365. As arguably the best catcher of this generation, Mauer is a fitting inductee to this year’s class. 

Billy Wagner

Five votes. That’s all Wagner needed to pass the 75% threshold necessary for admission to the hall. However, despite his agonizingly close call this year, the former Astros closer is well-positioned to be inducted next year. Perhaps the most dominant left-handed reliever of all time during his prime, Wagner is well-deserving of the nod. He has the second-lowest ERA of all time (2.31) among relievers who pitched over 250 innings, only trailing the great Mariano Rivera. Wagner also tallied 422 saves, sixth-most all time, and the lowest career WHIP of any pitcher since the dead ball era. Comparing him to recent hall of famer Trevor Hoffman, Wagner has over 60 more strikeouts in over 150 fewer innings, an ERA over half a run lower, and a lower career WHIP. However, since Hoffman has more saves, the traditional relief pitcher counting stat, the BBWAA has preferred him to Wagner. This isn’t to say Hoffman isn’t deserving of his spot, he is rightly considered one of the greatest relievers of all time. That being said, in an era where the best relief pitchers aren’t always used in the ninth inning, and where the importance of the save is becoming less and less prevalent, we should reconsider what metrics we prioritize when evaluating relief pitchers. With the best career WHIP and the second-best ERA in the modern era, Wagner is absolutely deserving of a spot in Cooperstown.

Andruw Jones

Jones is maybe one of the most polarizing players on the ballot. He clubbed 434 home runs, sixth most all-time of center fielders, only trailing current Hall of Famers and Carlos Beltran (who hit only one more). He did this while playing stellar defense, accumulating 10 gold gloves and pacing all center fielders with 24.4 defensive wins above replacement. However, Jones has his statistical shortcomings as well. His .254 career batting average is much lower than the .279 mark posted by Andre Dawson, the lowest of any modern center fielder in the Hall. Jones and Dawson actually profile quite similarly, with the two sharing near identical totals in home runs (432 and 438), OPS (.823 and .806), and wins above replacement (62.7 and 64.8), with elite center field defense. It took Dawson nine tries on the ballot before being inducted in 2010, and it appears Jones could be destined for the same fate. While the low batting average isn’t ideal, the statistic has fallen out of favor anyway in the modern MLB. With the league moving towards a three true outcomes style of play, Andruw’s high home run total would fit right in today. He may not be the perfect candidate, but Jones’s accolades and accomplishments make it hard to exclude him from the Hall.

Carlos Beltrán

Before 2017, Beltrán seemed like a lock for Cooperstown. The Manati, Puerto Rico native was nominated to nine all star games, tallied 2700 hits, 435 home runs, 312 stolen bases, and accumulated three gold gloves, amounting to 70.1 total WAR, higher than that of Tony Gwynn, Ivan Rodriguez, and John Smoltz. Beltrán was never able to bring home a world series title during his stints in Kansas City, Queens, and St. Louis, among others, but he finally brought home a title in Houston during his final big league season. Only one problem: that team was later mired amidst one of the most infamous baseball scandals in the league’s history, and the mastermind behind the operation was none other than the 40-year-old Beltrán. He’s faced harsh fallout following the scandal, as Beltrán was fired from his post as the Mets’ manager before he coached a single game, and received only 57.1% of the vote this year. While Beltrán certainly deserved punishment for his role in the sign stealing incident, that punishment came in the form of losing his job as manager in New York. He’s being docked by voters for a scandal that occurred past his prime that he’s already been disciplined for. While he’ll likely get the call anyway in the coming years, he shouldn’t have to wait past next January.